Holy Cross

Conference:	Pat
Expected RPI:	265.0
Current RPI:	265
Expected SOS:	273
Current SOS:	273
Current Record:	12-19
Expected Record:	12-19
Current Conf Record:	9-11
Expected Conf Record:	9-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-9
Current OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC Record:	3-8
Expected OOC RPI:	301
Expected OOC SOS:	273

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-19	265.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Holy Cross.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	A	64-69	W	100%
11-16	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	H	73-69	W	100%
11-19	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	A	88-66	L	0%
11-22	Fairleigh Dickinson (254.0)	NEC	A	87-76	L	0%
11-25	Albany (142.0)	AE	H	62-78	L	0%
12-1	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	N	54-70	L	0%
12-2	La Salle (202.0)	A10	N	58-54	L	0%
12-6	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	A	64-50	L	0%
12-9	New Hampshire (312.0)	AE	H	62-58	W	100%
12-19	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	H	68-82	L	0%
12-22	Siena (299.0)	MAAC	A	71-65	L	0%
12-29	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	H	74-79	L	0%
1-2	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	A	60-48	L	0%
1-5	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	A	83-77	L	0%
1-8	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	H	64-57	W	100%
1-11	Navy (200.0)	Pat	A	61-56	L	0%
1-14	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	H	40-54	L	0%
1-17	Army (280.0)	Pat	H	70-66	W	100%
1-20	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	A	77-56	L	0%
1-22	American (336.0)	Pat	A	57-60	W	100%
1-27	Lafayette (311.0)	Pat	H	85-74	W	100%
1-29	Lehigh (214.0)	Pat	H	67-71	L	0%
2-3	Loyola MD (322.0)	Pat	A	57-73	W	100%
2-7	Navy (200.0)	Pat	H	34-69	L	0%
2-10	Boston University (212.0)	Pat	A	62-73	W	100%
2-14	Army (280.0)	Pat	A	65-70	W	100%
2-17	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	H	67-68	L	0%
2-21	American (336.0)	Pat	H	70-64	W	100%
2-24	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	A	59-53	L	0%
3-1	Navy (200.0)	Pat	A	65-81	W	100%
3-4	Colgate (185.0)	Pat	N	62-55	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Holy Cross's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Holy Cross's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Holy Cross.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Holy Cross	Pat	26.50	26.50	39.74	39.74	-5.44	-5.44
Colgate	Pat	5.87	5.87	53.57	53.57	0.42	0.42
Navy	Pat	5.74	5.74	60.71	60.71	1.23	1.23
Bucknell	Pat	4.43	4.43	71.88	71.88	1.94	1.94
Boston University	Pat	4.36	4.36	46.43	46.43	-0.31	-0.31
Lafayette	Pat	4.34	4.34	28.57	28.57	-1.86	-1.86
Loyola MD	Pat	4.28	4.28	28.57	28.57	-1.83	-1.83
American	Pat	4.26	4.26	21.43	21.43	-2.43	-2.43
Lehigh	Pat	4.25	4.25	48.15	48.15	-0.16	-0.16
Army	Pat	4.23	4.23	44.44	44.44	-0.47	-0.47
Albany	AE	1.85	1.85	66.67	66.67	0.62	0.62
Siena	MAAC	1.84	1.84	22.58	22.58	-1.01	-1.01
Iona	MAAC	1.82	1.82	59.38	59.38	0.34	0.34
La Salle	A10	1.78	1.78	38.71	38.71	-0.40	-0.40
New Hampshire	AE	1.77	1.77	28.57	28.57	-0.76	-0.76
Massachusetts	A10	1.77	1.77	37.50	37.50	-0.44	-0.44
Manhattan	MAAC	1.76	1.76	43.33	43.33	-0.24	-0.24
Rhode Island	A10	1.74	1.74	77.42	77.42	0.95	0.95
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.72	1.72	31.03	31.03	-0.65	-0.65
Harvard	Ivy	1.72	1.72	58.62	58.62	0.30	0.30
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	1.69	1.69	35.71	35.71	-0.48	-0.48
Marist	MAAC	0.37	0.37	19.35	19.35	-0.23	-0.23
Binghamton	AE	0.32	0.32	31.03	31.03	-0.12	-0.12
Columbia	Ivy	0.29	0.29	26.92	26.92	-0.13	-0.13
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.28	0.28	43.75	43.75	-0.04	-0.04
Monmouth	MAAC	0.28	0.28	35.48	35.48	-0.08	-0.08
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.27	0.27	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.27	0.27	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
UMass Lowell	AE	0.27	0.27	37.93	37.93	-0.06	-0.06
Bryant	NEC	0.27	0.27	9.68	9.68	-0.21	-0.21
Fairfield	MAAC	0.26	0.26	51.52	51.52	0.01	0.01
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.25	0.25	57.14	57.14	0.04	0.04
UMBC	AE	0.24	0.24	67.74	67.74	0.09	0.09
Penn	Ivy	0.24	0.24	74.19	74.19	0.11	0.11
Niagara	MAAC	0.23	0.23	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.23	0.23	36.36	36.36	-0.06	-0.06
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.22	0.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Maine	AE	0.21	0.21	13.33	13.33	-0.16	-0.16
Cornell	Ivy	0.21	0.21	40.74	40.74	-0.04	-0.04
Vermont	AE	0.21	0.21	78.79	78.79	0.12	0.12
Princeton	Ivy	0.19	0.19	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.19	0.19	23.08	23.08	-0.10	-0.10
NJIT	ASun	0.18	0.18	42.86	42.86	-0.03	-0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.18	0.18	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
George Mason	A10	0.18	0.18	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.16	0.16	70.00	70.00	0.07	0.07
Hartford	AE	0.16	0.16	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Yale	Ivy	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.16	0.16	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Fordham	A10	0.15	0.15	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Canisius	MAAC	0.15	0.15	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
VCU	A10	0.15	0.15	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.14	0.14	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.13	0.13	25.00	25.00	-0.07	-0.07
Drexel	CAA	0.13	0.13	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Connecticut	Amer	0.13	0.13	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.13	0.13	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.13	0.13	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.13	0.13	64.52	64.52	0.04	0.04
Northeastern	CAA	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Rider	MAAC	0.13	0.13	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Davidson	A10	0.13	0.13	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.13	0.13	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Dayton	A10	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.11	0.11	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.11	0.11	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.10	0.10	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.08	0.08	93.94	93.94	0.07	0.07
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Brown	Ivy	0.08	0.08	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	15.62	15.62	-0.05	-0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	Sum	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
USC	P12	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.05	0.05	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Rutgers	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Utah St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Nevada	MWC	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Georgia St.	SB	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Western Carolina	SC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01